In new survey research, Andreas E. Murr and Michael S. Lewis-Beck asked people in each of the 50 states and Washington DC who they thought would win their state in the presidential election. Adding up their raw data, their survey suggests that President Trump will win re-election next week with 320 electoral votes to 218 for former Vice President, […]
For most commentators and pollsters, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election came as a sharp surprise. Charles Tien and Michael S. Lewis-Beck examine how political science modelers performed in their election predictions compared to poll aggregators and to the national polls. When looking at Hillary Clinton’s share of the two-party vote, they find that political science models […]
Who will be the next US President? Some commentators have argued that voter intention polls are flawed because it is difficult to know who will actually turn out to vote. To get around this problem, Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck use citizen forecasts, a “who do you think will win” survey question, to predict the election […]
The recent surge in public attention to election predictions has generated much discussion about how to improve forecasting model accuracy. Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Mary Stegmaier argue that advances in weather forecasting hold lessons for election forecasting. First, like weather models, election models should be based on sound theory. Second, more intensive data gathering, especially at the state level […]
Book Review: Welcoming New Americans? Local Governments and Immigrant Incorporation by Abigail Fisher Williamson
Book Review: Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters by Steve Koonin
Congressional opinions of war change with the events on the battlefield
Ku Klux Klan activism in the 1960s is linked to the South’s swing to the Republican Party.
Ayşe Işın Kirenci reviews The New Age of Empire: How Colonialism and Racism Still Rule the World by Kehinde Andrews
Matt Bluemink reviews What Do We Know and What Should We Do About Fake News? by Nick Anstead
Kyle Scott reviews Meddling in the Ballot Box: The Causes and Effects of Partisan Electoral Interventions by Dov H. Levin 
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