In forecasting the 2016 election result, modelers had a good year. Pollsters did not.
For most commentators and pollsters, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election came as a sharp surprise. Charles Tien and Michael S. Lewis-Beck examine how political science modelers performed in their election predictions compared to poll aggregators and to the national polls. When looking at Hillary Clinton’s share of the two-party vote, they find that political science models […]