Matthew C. MacWilliams

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Authoritarianism, not social class, is the dividing line between supporting and opposing Donald Trump.

Authoritarianism, not social class, is the dividing line between supporting and opposing Donald Trump.

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In the nine months since New York billionaire Donald Trump launched his presidential campaign, many pundits and commentators have attributed his snowballing success to his popularity with white working class voters who also lacked a college education. Using new survey data, Jonathan Weiler and Matthew MacWilliams find that this characterization of Trump voter isn’t accurate; rather than class or […]

April 21st, 2016|2016 Presidential Election, Elections and party politics across the US, Jonathan Weiler, Matthew C. MacWilliams|1 Comment|

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Donald Trump is attracting authoritarian primary voters, and it may help him to gain the nomination.

Donald Trump is attracting authoritarian primary voters, and it may help him to gain the nomination.

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With the first primaries of the 2016 presidential election cycle looming, many in the Republican Party are becoming increasingly concerned that billionaire Donald Trump will actually be able to gain the party’s nomination, leading the party to an electoral disaster in November. Using a new national survey of American voters, Matthew C. MacWilliams finds that these fears are well-founded. […]

January 27th, 2016|Elections and party politics across the US, Matthew C. MacWilliams|16 Comments|

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Forecasting models using Facebook data can be more accurate at predicting election outcomes than polling.

Forecasting models using Facebook data can be more accurate at predicting election outcomes than polling.

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The aftermath of the last presidential election saw election forecasting models called into question when only 7 out of 12 national models predicted that Obama would remain in the White House. Matthew C. MacWilliams proposes a new method of election prediction – using Facebook data in combination with electoral fundamentals. Applying this method to 16 of the 2014 Senate’s […]

December 23rd, 2015|Elections and party politics across the US, Matthew C. MacWilliams|0 Comments|

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