Christopher Stout

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    Internet polls are regularly underestimating support for Hillary Clinton

Internet polls are regularly underestimating support for Hillary Clinton

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Since the Republican and Democratic conventions in July, Hillary Clinton has experienced a poll ‘bounce’, to lead Donald Trump by about 8 percent, especially in telephone polls with live interviewers. Internet polls, by contrast, tend to show Clinton leading by only 2 or 3 percent. Are these internet polls underestimating Clinton or overestimating Trump? Using results from the 2016 […]

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    Growth in support from whites largely explains the Republican midterm wave.

Growth in support from whites largely explains the Republican midterm wave.

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Last week saw the Democratic Party midterm elections lose control of the Senate and its representation in the House fall to numbers not seen in nearly 70 years. Christopher T. Stout looks at concerns that a decline in turnout from black, Latino, and Asian American voters contributed to the Democrats’ defeat. Using exit poll data, he finds that while […]

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    Nominating credible Black candidates can help parties appeal to Black voters.

Nominating credible Black candidates can help parties appeal to Black voters.

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With demographic change continuing in America, both the Republican and Democratic Parties have embarked on strategies to diversify their pool of candidates in order to attract a greater share of the minority vote. Using data from Congressional elections, Christopher Stout looks at the success of this strategy. He finds that blacks in districts with Democratic candidates are more likely […]

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