The PollyVote project predicts the outcome of US presidential elections by combining forecasts from different methods, one of which are monthly expert surveys. Andreas Graefe writes that according to the latest survey, which now includes state-level experts; Hillary Clinton will win the election over Donald Trump with nearly 53 percent of the popular vote and 347 electoral votes.
Asking experts […]
As the 2016 election season rolls on, it is looking increasingly likely that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will square off against New York billionaire Donald Trump in the general election. But what determines how voters decide which candidate to support? Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe have developed a bio-index model that predicts presidential election outcomes based on […]
With the 2016 presidential primary now well underway, many pundits and commentators are beginning to cast their minds towards the fall general election. But what is the best way to predict the outcome? Andreas Graefe argues that given the plethora of models and forecasting methods which are available, the best option is to combine all the approaches into one […]
For decades political pollsters have relied on questions about people’s voting intention in order to predict who will win an election. But what about asking voters about their expectation of which party will win? In new research Andreas Graefe analyzes the accuracy of expectation-based forecasts in presidential elections from 1988 to 2012. He finds that such forecasts are, on […]
With every election come new and different models of forecasting the results. With presidential elections, most of these models tend to rely heavily on the state of the economy for their predictions. While these models are relatively successful, they do nothing to aid decision-making of parties, candidates, and voters. Andreas Graefe explains the Issues and Leaders model, which bases its […]
Book Review: Welcoming New Americans? Local Governments and Immigrant Incorporation by Abigail Fisher Williamson
Trump’s $12 billion farm subsidies are a solution to a political problem of his own making
Why Maryland’s minimum wage increase is unlikely to hurt jobs
State of the States for 3 November: Maryland’s “grovelling” Democrats, Iowa’s “Ag-gag” law challenged, and lobbying in Montana
Ayşe Işın Kirenci reviews The New Age of Empire: How Colonialism and Racism Still Rule the World by Kehinde Andrews
Matt Bluemink reviews What Do We Know and What Should We Do About Fake News? by Nick Anstead
Kyle Scott reviews Meddling in the Ballot Box: The Causes and Effects of Partisan Electoral Interventions by Dov H. Levin 
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