2014 Political Science and Politics symposium on US Presidential Election Forecasting
In April 2014, USAPP collaborated with the journal PS: Political Science and Politics’ symposium on US Presidential Election Forecasting. The symposium brings together the latest research and commentary on predictions for the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. You can find links to the articles below.
There are new rules for election forecasting in the 21st century
Predicting election results is just as much an art as it a science, writes David Wasserman. He argues that in recent decades, new trends in many of the subjective factors of elections have emerged […]
A look at past elections shows the 2016 presidential race will be extremely tight
The 2016 presidential election is well over two years away and there is much we do not know about how the race will unfold. The candidates, economic conditions, and just about everything else are […]
In contrast to pundits’ claims, Barack Obama won reelection because of the economy – not despite it
Many media post-mortems of the 2012 presidential race assume that the sluggish economy made Mitt Romney the favorite, but that President Obama prevailed due to a combination of his more likeable personality, a superior […]
Early campaign economic perceptions can help to predict the national verdict on Election Day
It is well known that elections are determined by certain fundamental variables: internal factors that reflect voters’ long-term political predispositions and external factors that are unique to each campaign. Robert S. Erikson and Christopher […]
To improve their predictions, election forecasters should look to other disciplines like meteorology.
The recent surge in public attention to election predictions has generated much discussion about how to improve forecasting model accuracy. Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Mary Stegmaier argue that advances in weather forecasting hold lessons […]
The close results of recent presidential elections reflect the emergence of a highly divided and partisan electorate
Over the past four decades, the American electorate has changed dramatically. As a result of these changes, Alan Abramowitz argues that we have entered a new and fundamentally different era of competition in presidential […]
Want a better election forecast? Measure the campaign, not just the economy
Competing characterizations of the U.S. economy by President Obama and Mitt Romney during the 2012 presidential election help illustrate two important elements of election forecasting. First, the change in an economic indicator, relative to […]
The Electoral Cycle favors the GOP in 2016
Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so; it is a shorter cycle that […]
